2. Probabilistic Thinking
2.1 Probability, Relative Frequency, and Availability Heuristic
This video defines probability and randomness in understandable terms. The availability heuristic is discussed in relation to the daily, subconscious task of assigning probabilities. It is crucial to be aware of biases in our intuitive thinking in order to make the best decisions.
2.2 How to Interpret Statics; Correlation and Causation
Statistics are not always correct or unbiased. Interpreting probabilities accurately is crucial to making the best-informed decisions. This video emphasizes the importance of absolute values and also draws a distinction between correlation and causation.
2.3 Finding Probabilities
Probability and random experiments are discussed again in this video. Using the examples of dice and a roulette wheel, scenarios with equally likely outcomes are examined and the procedure to make the best choice in these situations is explained.
2.4 Odds vs. Probability
Though they are often used interchangeably, the concepts of odds and probabilities are distinct from each other. This video briefly explains this difference in order to avoid any confusion.
2.5 Degree of Belief: Starting a Successful Business; Murder Trials
This video describes the concept of probability as one’s “degree of belief”. Using the examples of starting a new business and of acting as a juror in a murder trial, the way that we assign probability to scenarios that cannot be interpreted in terms of relative frequency or equally likely outcomes is explored.