May 22, 2017-Jun 30, 2017
Instructor: Hossein Pishro-Nik
How to Enroll
This course is offered online and covers most of the material in the first 9 chapters of the textbook. It includes detailed video lectures, online homework assignments, and exams. It is designed to satisfy the probability and statistics requirement of most engineering programs. Face-to-face office hours at UMass Amherst is also available for local students.
Note about pre-requisite: The course is accessible to students who have successfully finished a course in Calculus. If you would like to register for the course, but are not able to do so due to the official pre-requisite, you can request a permission to register by sending an email to the instructor.
- (Chapters 1 and 2): basic concepts such as random experiments, probability axioms, conditional probability, law of total probability, Bayes' rule, and counting methods
- Chapters 3 through 6): single and multiple random variables (discrete, continuous, and mixed), functions of random variables, joint distributions, sum of random variables, moment-generating functions, random vectors, and inequalities
- Chapter 7): law of large numbers and the central limit theorem
- Chapters 8 and 9): Bayesian and classical statistical inference: Point and interval estimation, hypothesis testing, and linear regression.
Course Title: Applying Chance & Risk to Life & Business
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Learn the basic concepts and tools to help you make better decisions under uncertainty, take calculated risks, and reduce the stress and regrets that often come with decision making. This video is the 1st of a total of 40 short videos. Click here to watch the rest of the videos.
Use probabilistic thinking to increase your chance of success and manage risks
- The laws of probability that govern our life
- Biases and fallacies that often distort our decision making
- Making decisions under uncertainty
- Taking calculated risks in life and business
- Reducing stress in decision making
- Reducing regrets about past decisions
Improve your real life decision making and reduce stress and regrets
Every day, we have to make decisions but we are often unsure of what to do because of the risks and uncertainties involved. Many of us often regret decisions both big and small, but there are actually many ways we can improve our decision-making and risk management, and reduce the stress and regrets about decisions.
Content and Overview
In this course, our goal is to better understand randomness and uncertainty and learn tools to help us make more educated risks. We'll talk about the different biases we all experience in our intuitive thinking, and then learn how to re-train our brains to approach everyday problems differently. Using probability theory and a bit of math, we'll discuss how to make decisions rationally and efficiently. But don't worry—no math background other than being able to add, subtract, divide, and multiply is required! We'll learn how to make better financial decisions, take smarter risks, and improve nearly every aspect of our lives. Each video is short and concise but filled with interesting and helpful material. Each one is animated, to ensure we grasp the concepts completely, and they all contain engaging, relatable real-life examples. Using these tools, anyone can learn to improve their decision-making, which leads to ultimately minimizing the number of regrets they have. If you'd like to live a more worry-free life with fewer regrets, this course is for you.
Special thanks to Linnea Duley for her great help in preparing the content as well as excellent job in creating the animations.